El Casco, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

571
FXUS66 KSGX 302043
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
143 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure to the south will bring cloudier conditions
and a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Warm
weather will continue through Saturday with greater cooling by
Sunday into early next week. High pressure over the Pacific will
move closer to the region later in the week, leading to warmer
weather across SoCal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Mostly clear skies were seen over SoCal this afternoon with some
high clouds moving in near the international border. A 578mb low
to the south over northern Baja California will continue to move
westward through tonight into Saturday, pulling in greater amounts
of tropical moisture to the area. PWAT`s currently near 0.90" will
rise over an inch by Saturday. This will prompt greater cloud
cover throughout the day from south to north, some of which may be
able to produce light showers. Chances for any shower activity to
occur start Saturday morning across the mountains and deserts of
San Diego County, moving to all areas by Saturday
afternoon/evening near a 15-20% chance of measurable
precipitation. Whatever falls will be light with a lot of areas
receiving sprinkles at best. High temperatures on Saturday will
be slightly cooler than today with highest confidence in northern
areas who may not see clouds until the late afternoon hours.

By Sunday, the low will push inland across northern Baja as PWAT`s
rise near 1.25"-1.50". Notable instability is seen across model
guidance with this movement, indicating the potential for
thunderstorms. The forecast remains consistent that isolated storm
activity will most likely occur from the eastern Inland Empire
and San Diego County valleys, mountains, and lower deserts. Any
thunderstorms that do form may produce locally heavy downpours,
gusty winds, and small hail. The rest of the region will have a
chance of rain showers, highest chance Sunday morning and
afternoon across San Diego County and other mountain areas. Latest
model guidance shows some areas receiving over one third of an
inch per hour across the mountains. Confidence still remains low
on where the heaviest rainfall will be, but most western valleys
should receive less than one tenth, slightly more possible across
the deserts when all is said and done. With all the cloud cover,
high temperatures will be a bit cooler with 80s across western
valleys and the high desert, with 60s/70s near the coast and into
the mountains.

A weak area of low pressure looks to then drop out of the north by
Monday and Tuesday, which will help maintain temperatures near to
slightly below normal with drier weather. A ridge of high pressure
off the coast will expand closer to our region Wednesday into the
end of next week as the weak low pushes further east. This will
lead to slow warming with more dry conditions as we get into the
latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
302030Z...Coasts/Valleys...Mostly clear skies prevail across the
region this afternoon/early evening but low clouds have leaked into
Imperial Beach in the last hour. These low clouds may continue to
gradually increase in coverage and spread northward to bring
intermittent CIGs into KSAN over the next few hours. Better
confidence in more widespread CIGs tonight by 09-12z, but there is a
30-40% chance to bring CIGs to the coastal TAF sites by 06z. Bases
will be 800-1300 ft MSL with only about 5-10 miles on inland extent
by 12-14z. Clouds quickly clear back out by 15-16z Saturday morning.
A few isolated showers are possible.

Elsewhere...FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20K ft MSL and VFR conditions through
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.
Slight chance of showers across the coastal waters early Sunday
morning and especially Sunday afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
A long period south swell will build into the region Sunday, leading
to elevated surf for south and southwest facing beaches of 4 to 6
feet with sets to 7 feet possible. This will result in higher rip
current risk and locally hazardous swimming conditions. Surf builds
Sunday, peaks Monday, then gradually diminishes again Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan